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2022 NFL fantasy football: 12 fantasy football players you’re drafting too much

The moral arc of the fantasy universe is chaotic, nonetheless it all bends toward balance. You can’t have up without down. Dark without light. Ketchup without mustard. For each batch of sleepers, there are always a corresponding amount of players in order to avoid. And for each and every player that’s being drafted too low, there are various that are being drafted too much.

I’ve always believed that you should not be afraid to attain just a little higher to really get your guys. But there is a limit. In case you are confident a player can surpass as well as exceed his ADP, it’s okay to go just a little early. These aren’t those guys.

Let me pour cool water on your own fantasy draft day dreams. You’re welcome.

Javonte Williams

The other day in this space, I discussed Melvin Gordon as an under drafted option. Partly, because Williams has been over drafted. I wont rehash all of the reasons Personally i think this way. It is possible to read them here.

What I’ll say is that Williams continued stay static in the first round of fantasy drafts has been probably the most baffling thing I could recall. Most fantasy enthusiasts have already been upfront in saying his ADP doesnt create a large amount of sense. Yet his ADP still hasnt taken the hit that lots of expected. Let that be considered a reminder that even though the majority of your league doesnt such as a certain player at a particular spot, it takes merely someone to draft a man early.

Cam Akers

The story of Akers 2021 season was summertime hype to in-season sadness after an Achilles injury translated to postseason puffery when he could return way before schedule. Needless to say, that ended with a heaping helping of meh after Akers struggled running the football. This season, the hype has been a lot more muted however, not enough to help keep him from slipping at night third round in drafts. The issue? Sean McVay. Or possibly Darrell Henderson.

Or some mix of both. All offseason, when asked about his running back situation, McVay always discussed Akers and Henderson in tandem. It fits with the coachs previous statements he had no plans to provide anyone a Todd Gurley-like workload again. Its been noted that the Rams were a reasonably one-back team this past year, but it addittionally belies a running back room that had plenty of players who have been varying examples of banged up. Which can also be considered a good time and energy to explain that Akers and Henderson have already been varying levels of banged up this offseason. Approach with caution.

Mike Evans

Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR

Evans has been so steady during his career that weve began to go on it for granted. Seventy catches, 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns? Yawn. He and Keenan Allen can shake hands because the guys with WR1 upside who nobody gets worked up about drafting anymore. In 2022, there could be a genuine reason.

Because the Bucs offense has added pieces and been tweaked schematically, Evans role has accordingly shifted. Especially, his average route depth. Its been on a reliable decline in the last few seasons — going from 14.5 yards in 2018 to 11.7 yards this past year. That’s already worrisome for a man whos never set up enormous reception totals (he’s got just two career seasons with an increase of than 80 receptions). Its a lot more worrisome once you recognize that the Bucs will have to combine and match across the offensive line. If Tom Brady doesnt have enough time to throw, will Evans yardage totals drop even more. If so, his touchdown scoring prowess will undoubtedly be mandatory to keep his overall fantasy production.

Adam Thielen

Each year, we say that touchdown regression is coming for Thielen. And each year, he gives us the proverbial finger on his solution to another productive scoring year. But yeah touchdown regression is coming. I dont care if it creates me appear to be a guy sitting on a street corner warning that the planet is ending. Because yknow what 1 day that guy is gonna be right.

The prevailing concern that it might happen this season is due to a big change in play-caller. Kevin OConnell spread the ball around when he was assisting to steer the ship in LA. Its why astute fantasy managers (that is a nicer term than degenerates) have already been hammering Irv Smith, Jr. and K.J. Osborn as sleepers this year. Realizing that Dalvin Cook still needs his touches, there wont be a rise in passing volume. Those targets must result from somewhere and its own improbable that Justin Jefferson is quitting way too many opportunities. This may be the start of the finish of Thielen as fantasy relevant.

Damien Harris

New England Patriots RB

Call it an incident of selective amnesia or possibly I unknowingly had a mind wipe through the summer, but I was knocked slightly backward to note that Harris ran for 15 touchdowns this past year. Its a wide array alone. Its particularly meaty within an offense that has been middle-of-the-road this past year, scoring 48 touchdowns. And at the chance of sounding such as a broken record (does anyone beneath the age of 35 recognize that reference anymore?), regression is coming.

The largest threat to Harris repeating last years numbers may be the Rise of Rhamondre. There were a lot of debates on the Interwebz concerning the relative value of Rhamondre Stevenson in fantasy drafts. While his ADP is up for debate, theres little argument that Stevenson could have a considerable role in the offense one which could include goal line work. For what its worth, the Patriots have added a bit with their receiving corps. Granted, the bar for improvement was set nearly underground following the past handful of seasons. Nonetheless it could mean slightly greater passing volume, which may also work against Harris.

Amari Cooper

I havent had the opportunity to create myself to obtain up to speed with Cooper since he left Dallas. Upon his arrival in Cleveland, Baker Mayfield was still the quarterback of record. Mayfields history didnt inspire much confidence in Cooper being exactly the same player he was with the Cowboys. At first glance, Deshaun Watsons arrival must have been reason behind optimism. Nonetheless it was apparent right from the start that Watson would serve some form of suspension. It had been only a matter of just how long. I was partially out when it appeared as if the ban will be six games. Im totally out at 11 games.

Jacoby Brissett may be a good bridge quarterback in true to life. Though Im ready to pay attention to arguments to the contrary. But hes done hardly any to raise his receivers in fantasy. In two seasons as a full-time starter, Brissetts most productive option was a 28-year-old T.Y. Hilton who finished an unremarkable 24th among receivers. That has been on a team having an underwhelming run game led by Frank Gore. This season, Brissett may be throwing to a 28-year-old Cooper, but he also offers Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to lean on in the backfield. Which means Im going for a spread any Cleveland pass catchers.

James Cook

Of course you like shiny new things in fantasy football especially rookies. We love rookies a lot more if they land in spots that look favorable at first glance. Hence why Cook is really a deep league fantasy favorite. He joins probably the most high-powered attacks in the league. Hes section of a backfield which has never committed fully to 1 running back (pour one out for Devin Singletary).

However the problem having an offense which has never focused on one running back is, well it will not invest in one running back. Singletary isnt fully going away. His strong stretch late last season proved he is able to handle a considerable workload if needed. Cooks upside comes as a pass catcher, but can he garner enough targets to possess standalone value? In addition Zack Moss continues to be lurking. Moss wont get enough touches to be fantasy relevant, but he could do enough to wreck someone elses value. Oh, incidentally, even though Josh Allen runs less this season, he could still take enough goal line work to generate headaches for anybody drafting a Bills running back.

Hunter Renfrow

Return back and appearance at the set of the very best 10 fantasy receivers from last season. If you want musical accompaniment, Id suggest The Muppets classic One of these brilliant Things ISN’T Just like the Other.” It wont take you long to determine which name doesn’t easily fit into that category. Renfrow had almost as much targets this past year (128) as he did in his first two seasons combined (148). But that has been mainly out necessarily. Injuries had Darren Waller in and from the lineup. Henry Ruggs was release following a horrific accident. Bryan Edwards underwhelmed, and Zay Jones was Zay Jones.

This season, the Raiders shouldnt maintain such dire straits with regards to targets. Uncertain in the event that you heard, however they added Davante Adams in the offseason. Waller is looking healthy and all set. That alone helps it be hard for Renfrow to obtain back again to 100 targets. NEVADA also added noted pass-catching running back Brandon Bolden to the mix, this means some cheap targets could go his way, aswell. Renfrows not just a deep threat rather than likely to grab yardage in chunks. Which could relegate him potentially to the ranks of WR3s in 2022. Chances are and to affect

Josh Jacobs

The preseason started with some shock and awe for Jacobs. Shock he got so much run in Vegas first preseason game. And some aww maybe we have to avoid drafting him? The Raiders have held firm they have no plans to trade Jacobs. But that doesnt imply that they intend to feature him, either.

As stated previously, the addition of Bolden provides Raiders a running back that may catch passes out from the backfield. Its how they might have preferred to utilize Kenyan Drake this past year, had he not missed five games. It appears pretty unlikely that Jacobs are certain to get back again to the career-high 64 targets he previously last season. That might be OK if we’re able to lean on his ability as a runner. But he was incredibly inefficient along with his 217 carries this past year and today has rookie Zamir White overlooking his shoulder to take some opportunities. Jacobs has landed squarely in the dreaded RB Dead Zone but still feels unattractive at that spot, aswell.

Miles Sanders

I believed in Sanders as soon as he was drafted and wanted him to become a workhorse in Philly. But eventually, you need to pay attention to what the team is letting you know. And the Eagles have told us loud and clear they dont have the same manner. Then to compound matters, Sanders pointedly told fantasy managers never to draft him. I never want to buy to be said that I didnt respect the mans wishes.

But seriously, Sanders’ usage has declined consistently over his three NFL seasons. Increase it he hasnt been probably the most durable back, missing a combined nine games in the last 2 yrs. His ADP feels as though a reflection of fantasy managers making panic picks to fill running back slots instead of a genuine assessment of what his production could possibly be this season. If Im likely to target an Eagles running back, Ill take my shot at Kenneth Gainwell much later in the draft.

New York Jets

Im uncertain whos likely to become more upset with me if they read this Jets Twitter or Dynasty Fantasy Twitter. Everybody loves Breece Hall. See my above comment about shiny new things. I would like to love Breece Hall. EASILY was deeper in the dynasty streets, I would love Breece Hall more. But this season, I cant love Breece Hall. At the very least not at the location Id need to draft him to get him. Before you obtain too twisted up, this isnt some type of love letter for Michael Carter (though I really do think hes an excellent back). I dont have a solid opinion on whether he’ll or ought to be the starter this season.

But I know that hes not going anywhere. He played admirably last season for the Jets. Despite having a fresh coaching staff set up, it doesnt seem likely that hes likely to become persona non grata. So, Hall managers will curently have to cope with that headache. Then theres the problem of the Jets offense itself. 2022 has taken optimism from fantasy enthusiasts that NY could possibly be better this season. Maybe. But this team isnt projected to win plenty of games. Game script is actually a factor. Hall has pass-catching ability, but just how many targets will undoubtedly be available especially with fellow rookie Garrett Wilson supplying a tantalizing option in the passing game. Hall as greater than a third running back feels mighty optimistic.

D'Andre Swift

Last season, I faded Swift and lived to regret it. This year, Im fading Swift at cost. I possibly could find yourself feeling silly again this season, but Ill contend that my argument differs. This past year, I thought Swift would get game-scripted out of opportunities. Instead, he saw a lot more targets than I anticipated and had a fantastic season. This season, I dont think game script will impact Swifts snap share. Instead, I wonder if you will have enough targets to bypass in the Lions offense. OK, maybe my argument isnt so different this season.

Hear me out. Amon-Ra St. Brown was a mid-season revelation this past year and figures to help keep a big share of the targets. T.J. Hockenson is healthy again and you will be involved. D.J. Chark is really a recent addition to the offense and really should see his fair share of targets externally. Finally, we expect rookie Jameson Williams to reach sometime later this year. Lest we forget, Jared Goff continues to be the quarterback of an offense that has been middle-of-the-road in passing volume this past year. This aerial attack will probably only support two pass catchers for the most part. If Swift isnt gobbling up targets, its hard to see him creating the difference along with his rushing work. I anticipate once more being proven wrong.

Marcas Grant is really a fantasy analyst for NFL.com and a guy who can’t obtain the Hot Dog Song out of his head. Send him your latest earworm or fantasy football questions on Twitter @MarcasG or TikTok at marcasgrant.

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