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Beto O’Rourke’s Likelihood of Beating Abbott With Under a few months to Election

Former Democratic Representative Beto O’Rourke hopes to oust Texas’ incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott in the upcoming November 8 midterm, but with significantly less than 90 days until Election Day the liberal candidate looks to be fighting an uphill battle.

O’Rourke, who previously served in Congress for Texas’ 16th District from 2013 through 2019, significantly grew his national profile when he unsuccessfully challenged incumbent GOP Senator Ted Cruz in 2018. From then on, the Texas Democrat launched an unsuccessful campaign for the Democratic Party‘s 2020 presidential nomination, dropping out prior to the caucuses and primaries began.

The liberal candidate has broken Texas fundraising records in his bid to unseat Abbott, who has recently served two terms as governor. O’Rourke raked in an impressive $27.6 million in four months, in accordance with his campaign’s announcement from July 15. However, Abbott earned nearly $25 million through the same time frame, with polls showing him having a substantial advantage.

Beto O'Rourke and Greg Abbott
Polls show Democratic gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke trailing Texas’ incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott with significantly less than 90 days to Election Day. Above left, O’Rourke sometimes appears at Pan American Neighborhood Park on June 26 in Austin, Texas. Above to the proper, Abbott speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) on August 4 in Dallas.Sergio Flores/Brandon Bell/Getty Images

Survey results from The Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas at Tyler, that have been published Sunday, showed O’Rourke down by 7 points against Abbott. The Democratic contender had the support of just 39 percent of registered voters as the Republican was backed by 46 percent. The poll was conducted from August 1 to 7 among 1,384 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 points.

A previous poll completed from June 27 to July 1 by the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs and YouGov had Abbott ahead by 5 points. O’Rourke was backed by 42 percent of registered voters and the incumbent governor had the support of 47 percent. It included 1,169 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 points.

Survey results from CBS News and YouGov from June 22 to 27 had O’Rourke trailing by 8 points. The former congressman had the support of 41 percent of likely voters and Abbott had the backing of 49 percent. The poll included 1,075 likely voters with a margin of error plus or minus 4.7 percent.

The existing average of recent Texas polls published by news and polling site FiveThirtyEight shows Abbot with a nearly 9 point advantage. O’Rourke gets the support around 40.4 percent of Texans in comparison to Abbott’s 49.3 percent.

A Democrat winning a statewide race in Texas remains a hard feat to attain. The state was not led by way of a Democratic governor since 1995, and the final time a Democratic senator represented hawaii in Congress was 1993. GOP presidential candidates also have carried Texas atlanta divorce attorneys election heading back to 1980. But analysts have pointed to relatively close margins in recent statewide contests along with Democratic victories in more local contestsdescribing Texas as trending “purple” rather than remaining solidly red.

In the 2018 Senate race, O’Rourke finished only 2.6 percent behind Cruz. The Democrat had the backing of 48.3 percent of Texan voters when compared to incumbent Republican’s 50.9 percent. Former President Donald Trump performed better against President Joe Biden in 2020 however, garnering 52.1 percent to the Democrat’s 46.5 percent.

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