Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.
On Monday, FBI agents searched Mar-a-Lago, former President Donald Trumps Florida estate, with a warrant to reportedly investigate whether he previously mishandled or kept classified documents in violation of the Presidential Records Act, which requires presidents to show over any written materials linked to their official duties.
The dust continues to be settling on just what should come of the search such as for example, which kind of classified information does the FBI suspect Trump to stay possession of? But polling from YouGov conducted on Aug. 9 discovered that 62 percent of Americans thought it had been the very big problem (45 percent) or somewhat of an issue (17 percent) that Trump allegedly held onto classified documents after leaving office. Having said that, as weve seen with previous investigations of Trump, public opinion is split starkly along partisan lines, and Americans generally remain leery of taking action against him. That same Aug. 9 YouGov poll, for example, discovered that 76 percent of Democrats and 44 percent of independents said theyd contemplate it an extremely big problem, weighed against just 12 percent of Republicans. And an Aug. 10 poll from Politico/Morning Consult corroborates this breakdown: 81 percent of Democratic registered voters said the search was predicated on evidence that Trump had committed a crime, while only 16 percent of Republicans agreed.
We dont have any nonpartisan polls yet,1 but these findings come in line with polls that followed two similar stories from earlier this season. First, in February, news broke that the National Archives and Records Administration had retrieved 15 boxes of documents from Mar-a-Lago they said Trump shouldnt experienced in his possession, and NY Times reporter Maggie Haberman released bombshell details from her upcoming book of the former president clogging a White House toilet with papers hed tried to flush. A Feb. 16-20 poll from Suffolk University/USA Today, for example, discovered that 56 percent of registered voters thought the National Archives retrieving such documents from Trump was a significant matter warranting investigation. But again, there have been stark differences by party, with 88 percent of Democrats saying it must be investigated, weighed against just 27 percent of Republicans. Still, a survey conducted Feb. 12-15 by The Economist/YouGov discovered that 79 percent of Americans thought Trump taking home classified material was more wrong than right including 61 percent of Republicans and 91 percent of Democrats.
This poll from The Economist/YouGov went one step further, though, comparing Trumps security violation to Hillary Clintons usage of an individual email system to conduct government business as secretary of state. And what it found is a similar share of Americans considered both Trumps and Clintons actions very or somewhat serious. For instance, 47 percent said Trumps security violation was very serious, weighed against 43 percent who said exactly the same of Clintons issue. Notably, however, there have been stark partisan splits on these questions, with 93 percent of Democrats and 48 percent of Republicans saying Trumps actions were at the very least somewhat serious versus 91 percent of Republicans and 56 percent of Democrats who said exactly the same about Clintons actions.
It remains to be observed what legal action, if any, will come out of this weeks FBI search, but public opinion on prior investigations of Trump offers some clues concerning how Americans could be feeling about any of it. Consider special counsel Robert Muellers investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 election. Following a public release of the Mueller report in April 2019, polls found Americans struggling to agree on the investigations findings: A Washington Post/ABC News poll fielded at that time discovered that 81 percent of Democrats said they believed Trump interfered in Muellers investigation to the amount of obstruction of justice, while 77 percent of Republicans said the contrary.
Additionally, Americans have already been hesitant to do this against Trump even though they think he did something amiss. For instance, exactly the same Washington Post/ABC News poll discovered that soon after the Mueller report was published, 56 percent of Americans said Congress should not start impeachment proceedings, that was 10 percentage points greater than what the poll found a couple of months earlier, in August 2018. It had been an identical story regarding Trumps first impeachment trial. In January 2020, following the House voted to impeach Trump but prior to the Senate voted to acquit, about 50 % of Americans (51 percent) said they considered impeachment a wasteful usage of Congresss time, in accordance with a FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll. Having said that, you can find exceptions that show more stringent public stances on holding Trump accountable: A recently available NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College poll reported that 50 percent of Americans thought Trump ought to be criminally charged predicated on evidence shown in the congressional hearings on the Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol.
To be certain, the FBIs search of Trumps estate is merely the most recent in more information on legal problems facing Trump. Actually, its not the only real development in his legalities this week. The question now could be whether things changes in the eyes of the general public these times. But if previous investigations are any indication, it doesnt look likely.
Other polling bites
- Among Americans with social media marketing, over half (54 percent) said their posts dont accurately reflect their lifestyle, per a survey from CivicScience conducted July 12-19. And of adults who said theyve spent four or even more hours on social media marketing each day, 66 percent said they felt very or somewhat strongly stressed within the last week. Those that spent minimal time on social media marketing less than one hour each day also reported stress but at a slightly lower rate: 51 percent.
- Linked to the aforementioned, 57 percent of Americans said they wished to spend a couple of days off the grid minus the expectation of giving an answer to any calls, texts, or online messages, in accordance with YouGov polling on Aug. 5. This is particularly true of adults between ages 30 to 44 (61 percent) and 45 to 64 (63 percent), although it was least true the type of beneath the age of 30 (48 percent).
- Of Americans whove been employed, 81 percent said that they had quit employment at least one time within their life, per a YouGov survey conducted July 27-29. This differed across income levels, though, with those in higher income brackets more prone to have called it quits at some time. Ninety percent of these with a family group income over $100,000 said that they had quit employment, weighed against 83 percent the type of with a family group income of $50,000-100,000 and 76 percent the type of with a family group income of significantly less than $50,000.
- Another scoop on sweet treats: Crunch Ice Cream Bars were Americans favorite treat from ice cream trucks, in accordance with July 28-31 polling from YouGov. The survey ranked items by win percentage, or how often one treat won against another in a one-on-one matchup. However, the Crunch Ice Cream Bars popularity wasnt overwhelming, to arrive at 64.2 percent. It barely edged out your competition, including Drumsticks (64.1 percent), vanilla ice cream sandwiches (64.1 percent), twist soft-serve cones (62.4 percent) and Klondike bars (60.1 percent). For anybody wondering, the likely soon-to-be discontinued Choco Taco came in 11th, with 55.2 percent.
In accordance with FiveThirtyEights presidential approval tracker,2 40.0 percent of Americans approve of the work Biden does as president, while 55.4 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -15.4 points). At the moment the other day, 39.2 percent approved and 55.7 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of -16.5 points). A month ago, Biden had an approval rating of 38.5 percent and a disapproval rating of 56.0 percent, for a net approval rating of -17.4 points.
Inside our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot,3 Democrats currently lead Republicans by 0.2 points (43.9 percent to 43.7 percent). Yesterday, Republicans and Democrats were roughly tied (44.2 percent to 44.2 percent). At the moment last month, voters preferred Republicans by 2.0 points (45.1 percent to 43.1 percent).