The elections in August offered Kenyans a temporary distraction from a few of the challenges the united states is facing. Near the top of these challenges is food insecurity. In 2022, the united states has experienced higher food prices than previously. On the list of commodities which have seen high price increases is maize. This staple food has doubled in cost in per year.
Food price inflation, even though consequence of a “perfect storm”, will undoubtedly be on top of the agenda for the brand new administration, which includes promised to build up a lasting solution.
The existing food inflation is because a variety of factors. First, the COVID-19 pandemic affected both production of food and inputs for production. In conjunction with supply chain challenges, prices of inputs on global markets began to rise over the last quarter of 2021.
Second, Kenya is experiencing among the worst droughts registered during the past four decades. The La Nia weather phenomenon has hit the central, eastern and northern parts of the united states, leaving about 4.3 million Kenyans looking for food assistance by August 2022.
Third, the Russian war in Ukraine affected supply not merely of grains, but additionally of key inputs such as for example fertilizer.
These shocks occurred simultaneously. But long-standing issues in Kenya should be resolved anyway if the united states is usually to be self-sufficient in staples, such as for example maize.
Preventing future crisis
You can find six areas the incoming government should concentrate on:
Decrease the cost of production: In 2022, the expense of all inputs, including seed, fertilizer, agro-chemicals, hire of machinery and labor, increased. Simulations predicated on cost of production studies claim that the expense of maize production will probably rise by typically 60% for the 2022 main season. The price of production is projected to be up to KSh4,000 or around US$40 for a 90kg bag, with a two-kilogram packet of flour retailing at typically KSh220 (US$2.2). It’s estimated that the annual per capita usage of maize is 80 kg. This means about 200 grams daily. The common household, with four members would require to invest about KSh600 weekly (about US$6).
To keep prices at affordable levels, farmers should try to produce maize for under KSh1,800 (US$18) per 90-kg bag. This might permit the producers to market at around KSh2,300 (US$23). Market data suggests a wholesale price of KSh2,300 (US$23) per 90kg bag will translate to a retail price below KSh90 US$9) per 2kg. This might be considered a great outcome for the united states: producers would get yourself a profit while consumers could afford to get an important staple.
The main element cost drivers recently have already been the rental value of land and labour. Besides these, low yields bring about high production costs. Therefore, by increasing maize productivity, farmers may likely register lower costs of production, but there’s still a have to address another cost drivers. This is often attained through policy.
Fix policy incoherence: Coherence in policy is easily attained if it is predicated on evidence. Decisions predicated on politics result in incoherent policies. For instance, a fertilizer subsidy came too late for the maize early spring this year and its own design was criticized. And the maize flour subsidy announced in July was inefficient: everybody got the subsidized flour.
Combat climate change and build farmers’ resilience: The federal government must spend money on getting and sharing advance information regarding weather. This season, alerts about bad weather should have led to advisories for farmers in what to plant. Farmers also require a better knowledge of crop insurance.
Reduce post-harvest losses: For maize, it has occurred due mainly to poor storage infrastructure, and poor handling and storage of grain. You can find new laws to encourage private sector investments in solving the issues they have to be finalized and apply. Then farmers wouldn’t need to sell crops at low prices straight after harvesting.
Spend money on agricultural data systems: Once more, this should be done in cooperation with county governments, which are nearer to farmers. Reliable and credible data will undoubtedly be ideal for informing policies and interventions. It could alert the general public sector to shocks such as for example low production. This is recommended in 2019 however the government is yet to implement the majority of the recommendations.
Address stagnation in productivity: Although in a few years the united states has registered increases in maize production, it has come primarily from area expansion instead of from productivity increases. There exists a have to support county governments to regenerate extension and advisory systems. Robust systems ensure it is clearer what farmers are purchasing with subsidies and how productivity is affected.
Kenya can take advantage of the connection with other countries in the East Africa region. For instance, Ethiopia has registered increased cereal productivity on the past 2 decades. It achieved this primarily since it revamped its extension systems and combined them having an inputs subsidy program which delivered seeds and fertilizers to farmers. The strategy was to instruct farmers about new technologies and enable them to obtain the inputs necessary to use new knowledge.