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Oil Bears Beware, Crude Prices Could Soon Spike

While sentiment in oil markets has been decidedly bearish in recent weeks, the chance of Russia escalating its war with Ukraine and news that China is finally checking mean there’s a lot of upside risk in oil markets.

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Friday, September 23rd, 2022

Delivering on its promise to aggressively tackle inflation, the united states Federal Reserve brought interest levels with their highest level since 2008 with a 75-basis-point hike, confirming analysts fears that its primary target of curbing inflation will override any oil-related concerns. However, this weeks increase in the Russia-Ukraine war has renewed fears of Russian supply cuts which, coupled with news of China finally checking its cities after almost a year of lockdowns, have counteracted the downside pressure, at the very least for the moment.

EU Prepares Eighth Russia Sanctions Package. With Russia likely to annex elements of east Ukraine after next weeks referendums, europe is looking to construct another sanctions package that could put tighter curbs on high-tech exports and implement a group-wide oil price cap.

Iran and US Drift From Deal. Tehran and Washington had the opportunity to getting nearer to a nuclear deal at the UN General Assembly, but President Ebrahim Raisi demanded guarantees on any prospective agreement and decried the double standards of Western countries when coping with Iran.

UK Lifts Shale Gas Ban. The brand new UK government lifted a moratorium on fracking for shale gas in the united kingdom, set up since 2019, with Business and Energy Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg claiming the practice is safe and that limits on seismic activity ought to be re-assessed despite fears of drilling-induced tremors.

EPA to Toughen Emissions Rules for Trucks. THE UNITED STATES Environmental Protection Agency is considering adopting more stringent greenhouse gas emission rules for heavy trucks built-in model years 2027-2029, arguing that the IRA bill requires more assertive regulatory measures.

Paris Sues ITS Oil Major. The cities of Paris and NY have joined a network of environmental organizations which are suing French energy major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) for failing woefully to adequately fight climate change, seeking a choice comparable to the landmark 2021 Dutch court ruling on Shell (LON:SHEL).

ADNOC Eyes Purchase of Oil Trader. The UAE national oil company ADNOC is reportedly in early-stage foretells acquire or have a stake in the worlds fourth-largest energy trading firm Gunvor, with the latters majority owner stating its company value rose to $4 billion in H1 2022.

EU Could Exempt US from Carbon Rules. EUROPE might exempt the united states from its carbon border levy, that is expected to begin in 2026, so long as america gets the same trajectory with regards to emission reduction.

Court Scraps $3.6 Billion Gas Project Permit. Australias Federal Court ruled and only an indigenous group which has asked to overturn the drilling permit for the 3.6 billion Barossa project off the countrys northern coast, arguing that project operator Santos (ASX:STO) didnt consult them concerning the drilling.

Cheniere Vows to repair Polluting Equipment. Having detected increased emissions at its Sabine LNG facility, US LNG exporter Cheniere (NYSEAMERICAN:LNG) pledged to displace a dysfunctional generator turbine, almost a year following the company asked for an exemption from EPA emission rules.

Another Gas Discovery in Malaysia. The UAE-based Mubadala Energy has made a substantial gas discovery offshore Malaysia, with the Cengkih-1 exploration well hitting a gas column greater than 110 meters, boosting the long-term prospects of Malaysian LNG volumes.

Europe Mulls New Taxes for Coal. Brussels is currently looking into methods to subject coal plants to the EUs recently announced 180 per MWh cap on power generators revenues, despite the fact that initially these were established for non-fossil-fuel sources as initially coal was considered to have running costs above the given threshold.

US Refiners Prepared to Buy Canadian Again. After the US SPR release grinds to a halt, US refiners are expected to double down on cheap Canadian heavy sour grades from Alberta as pipeline operator Enbridge (TSE:ENB) started apportioning pipeline capacity after months of unrestricted supply.

AMLO Considers Dissolving Mexicos Oil Trading Unit. In accordance with media reports, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is readying to dissolve PMI, the trading arm of national oil company PEMEX, saying that beyond 2023 the majority of the countrys crude will be used domestically.

Chinese Oil Major Double Down on Batteries. Chinas leading oil producers PetroChina (SHA: 601857) and Sinopec (SHA: 600028) have joined the worlds biggest battery maker CATL and carmaker SAIC in a jv to provide swappable batteries for electric vehicles.

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com

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