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Only 49% of home builders feel confident in sales, currently and for another six months. Its the cheapest number since April 2014 (excluding the pandemic).

Thats based on the National Association of Home Builders, which released its monthly HOUSING MARKETPLACE Index on August 15. The NAHB gets the statistics by polling its members.

NAHB Chair Jerry Konter called it a troubling sign and used the R-word.

Individuals are now waiting in the wings because of higher housing costs, he said. Tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and persistently elevated construction costs have brought a housing recession.

The HOUSING MARKETPLACE Index has decreased for days gone by 8 months. Its the very first time the index has fallen below the break-even way of measuring 50%. This past year, 75% of builders reported confidence in sales, currently and in the foreseeable future.

Builders report on the confidence in the single-family housing marketplace. They rate their confidence level for present sales and for sales through the next six months. In addition they measure their confidence in traffic from prospective buyers.

Those three numbers are averaged to get the HOUSING MARKETPLACE Index. The NAHB calculates the quantity nationwide which for the August report is 49% and by region.

For the August report, 57% of home builders felt confident in today’s market, while only 47% expressed feeling confident concerning the market for another six months. Only 32% felt theyd have more traffic from prospective home buyers.

Listed below are the regional numbers:

  • Northeast 49
  • MidWest 42
  • South 54
  • West 42

Twelve months ago, the regional totals were:

  • Northeast 76
  • MidWest 64
  • South 77
  • West 85

Known reasons for the Decline

Based on the NAHB, you can find three main conditions that impact housing affordability, and subsequently, impact the housing marketplace: elevated interest levels, supply chain problems and high home prices.

More Numbers from the Survey

  • 19% Thats the percentage of survey respondents who said they will have had to lessen prices to stimulate sales and limit cancellations.
  • 5% Thats the median new single home price reduction.
  • 69% Thats the amount of builders who believe that the higher interest levels will impact the demand for housing.

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Image: Depositphotos

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