Welcome all to the Bloody Elbow staff picks for UFC Paris: Gane vs. Tuivasa. I (Tim Bissell) am inheriting this column from the irreplaceable Mookie Alexander, who’s leaving BE for pastures new.
Ill do my far better keep this feature interesting for several folks who desire to have a look at what our staff is thinking and desire to celebrate our wins and (probably) troll us for the losses.
Despite authoring MMA professionally for about seven years now, Im not the very best mind for Xs and Os. Im more of an outside-of-the-cage expert. So because of this feature, rather than trying to offer you my very own technical analysis of how certain people fight, Im likely to take the chance to check some theories in what may predict the results of a bout.
For the near future the theory I am testing is that fighters who’ve the higher winning percentage entering the fight will win that fight. Winning percentage (or wp) may be the value generated when comparing most of a fighters past wins against their final number of fights. For me, this is a fascinating experiment to see whether eliminating the rest of the variables and intangibles and just considering fighters abilities to win their past fights will determine who gets the best shot of winning confirmed match-up.
Some housekeeping: Ill be picking the fighter who gets the highest wp because of their past UFC fights. Draws are believed losses in my own calculation (as the fighter didn’t win). No contests arent counted in the calculation (because they’re too weird). Exhibition fights on THE BEST Fighter dont count (they’re exhibitions under unusual circumstances). Contender Series fights will undoubtedly be counted (given that they continue pro records).
Regarding a tie in fighters UFC wp, the fighter with UFC fights will undoubtedly be selected as my probable winner. If that is clearly a tie, i quickly will compare fighters overall MMA wps and lastly their final number of MMA fights.
So, with that out just how, listed below are our BE staff predictions (including mine which were picked utilizing the calculation described above).
Ciryl Gane vs. Tai Tuivasa
Anton Tabuena: That is an interesting match, due to the fact of Tuivasas power and the truth that he’ll not allow Gane to coast and play his normal game. That may either make Gane look much better than normal as hell look for a more willing dance partner thatll take risks and obtain countered, or hell get caught and stopped. In any event, thisll be fun and can lead to a heavyweight contest that I could actually anticipate. I can view it going both ways, but since that is heavyweight, Im choosing chaos and the big upset. Tai Tuivasa by KO.
Bissell: Ciryl Gane includes a winning percentage (wp) of 88.89% in the UFC. That is 16.6% greater than Tai Tuivasas wp of 72.73%. So my pic will undoubtedly be for the 10-1 Gane, whose sole pro loss came in his UFC heavyweight title unification bout with Francis Ngannou last periods.
It may seem that Tuivasas wp is suffering from a stronger schedule than Gane. However, though it feels as though Gane is relatively new on the market he only has two fewer fights than Tuivasa against UFC-level competition.
Gane also offers the wp edge in overall MMA fights. With Gane holding an extraordinary 90.91% in comparison to Tuivasas still pretty great 83.33%. Tuivasa has already established seven more total fights than Gane. Ciryl Gane by decision.
Mookie Alexander: Tuivasas huge power alone makes him a threat to Gane and almost every other heavyweight on the market. Gane is quite measured, safe almost to a fault, and when he senses danger if/when Tuivasa charges forward with big shots he’ll try to wrestle. Just as much as I really like Tuivasa its been one minute since hes had his ground game seriously tested, and Gane figures to possess a huge advantage there. Gane keeps range perfectly and works behind his jab, with a committed and elite kicking game on top of that. While hes not unhittable as well as defensively great, hes yet to stay any serious trouble in his UFC career. Id love for Tuivasa to spring another surprise but Ganes a large favorite for grounds… and in addition I dont want my last prediction as an associate of the staff to become a wrong one. Ciryl Gane by decision.
Zane Simon: This feels as though a fairly simple fight to dissect, honestly, and will really be divided to the fights both men had against Derrick Lewis. For Gane, the bout was a whole shutout, operating by the end of his jab and low kicking game on his solution to a third round TKO that saw Lewis land most of 16 significant strikes. Tuivasas bout with Lewis was a two round 50/50 war, where both men landed huge shots in pocket exchanges and Tuivasa were able to discover the killshot first. How is he likely to break through Ganes command of distance if Gane isnt ready to sit back and trade with him? Between your two of these, Gane may be the more prone to hit takedowns and control the grappling. Unless Gane slips up really badly, it looks like a bout where he is able to punish Bam Bam for his wild overthrowing and insufficient cage cutting. Ciryl Gane by TKO, round 3.
Staff picking Gane: Bissell, Mookie, Stephie, Zane, Dayne
Staff picking Tuivasa: Anton
Robert Whittaker vs. Marvin Vettori
Anton Tabuena: Sucks that Whittaker is for the reason that Rich Franklin territory and contemplating a progress in weight, because I believe hes far more advanced than almost every other middleweight not named Adesanya. I believe hell pick apart Vettori, who’ll just make an effort to rough him up by the fence however, not really land enough significant offense. Robert Whittaker by decision.
Bissell: Robert Whittakers UFC wp is 77.78%, that is only slightly much better than Marvin Vettoris 70%. Despite the fact that Whittakers lead in wp is merely slight, Personally i think good about picking him because he’s got 18 contests in the Octagon, eight a lot more than his Italian counterpart. Once you element in both mens entire MMA careers, Whittaker still holds hook wp advantage (1.05%) over Vettori. Robert Whittaker by decision.
Mookie Alexander: Whittaker and Adesanya arent exactly the same fighter however the one universal problem Vettori could have is his inability to effectively establish his takedown game. Roberts not likely to be outwrestled by Vettori, this means Vettori really needs the energy to hurt Whittaker or the capability to outstrike him in volume or do more damage. Vettori is really a very good striker but hes facing an excellent striker having an excellent left hook and terrific timing which could really throw Vettori off. Marvins pace and toughness will make this a far more interesting fight (especially since Whittaker has been hurt at least one time in five of his last six fights), however, not enough for me personally to choose the upset. Robert Whittaker by decision.
Zane Simon: I honestly wouldnt be surprised if this can be a a lot more difficult fight for Whittaker than people expect. When confronted with an opponent who is able to take his shots and fire back, Whittakers tendency to chase prolonged exchanges in the pocket means he often gets hit frequently himself. Vettori isnt more likely to settle in to the sort of low-output turn-taking game that Gastelum and Cannonier got lost in, that could imply that this fight gets a whole lot scrappier than it looks like it will. Unfortunately for Vettori, even while his boxing has improved through the years, hes yet to essentially show himself as an electrical puncher and hes got a fairly limited technical bag of tricks to draw from. So Ill still take Robert Whittaker by decision. Just dont think itll be a straightforward victory.
Staff picking Whittaker: Bissell, Mookie, Stephie, Zane, Anton
Staff picking Vettori: Dayne
Alessio Di Chirico vs. Roman Kopylov
Bissell: That is a fascinating match-up for testing my theory. Di Chirico has quietly come up with a 10-fight tenure in the UFC. He’s got an unimpressive 40% wp which include wins against Joaquin Buckley, Julian Marquez and Oluwale Bamgbose. But his 40% is way much better than Kopylovs bit fat zero for wp. Hes 0-2 in the UFC since joining from Fight Nights Global (where he was a champion).
Considering their overall MMA wp, Kopylov includes a massive 80% in comparison to Di Chiricos before average 68.42. However the theory is that Di Chiricos UFC success means hell function as winner in the Paris. Alessio di Chirico by decision.
Zane Simon: Both these men have big problems picking right up wins at the UFC level. For Di Chirico, his low output jack of most trades, master of none style implies that any opponent who is able to take him a far more technical fight in virtually any one area could find a way to victory. For Kopylov, his bullying volume striking game shows big holes at a rate where few fighters find his physicality intimidating, and several hit harder than he does. Still, Personally i think like theres more room for Kopylov to surprise and impress here. If he is able to stay busy, will Di Chirico do enough to steal rounds? Roman Kopylov by decision.
Staff picking Di Chirico: Bissell, Mookie, Stephie
Staff picking Kopylov: Zane, Dayne, Anton
Nasrat Haqparast vs. John Makdessi
Bissell: The wps in this match-up force me to choose the veteran, and underdog, John Makdessi here. Within their overall MMA careers Makdessis wp is .22% less than Nasrat Haqparasts, with Makdessi competing seven times a lot more than Haqparast. But, again, its the UFC numbers we value here.
With a 5-4 record Haqparasts UFC wp is 55.56%, 5.55% less than Makdessis 61.11%. Makdessis higher score comes despite him having double the quantity of fights against UFC competition than his opponent does. John Makdessi by decision.
Mookie Alexander: Crazy fun fight. Pretty crazy that Makdessi has been around the UFC for 12 years. Makdessi may be the more diverse striker but Haqparast has faster hands, is better, and may pose problems for the Canadian along with his southpaw stance. Haqparast has historically struggled with guys who’ve depth with their game, and he just about won’t wrestle so he cant exploit Makdessis weaknesses there. Yet, Personally i think like Makdessis insufficient power and physicality means Haqparast will stay aggressive and total up the more damaging blows during the period of the contest. Nasrat Haqparast by decision.
Zane Simon: Nasrat Haqparasts amount of time in the UFC has seemingly been marked by surprising stagnation. He entered the promotion with a good base as a dynamic fast athlete with a developing boxing game and a competitive scrambling grappling ability on the mats. And… that feels nearly the same as wherever hes at now 5 years later. And in his last fight, Bobby Green could have a pretty slick counter boxing game to Haqparast and discover him with clean combinations again and again. Is Makdessi as slick as Green, no most likely not. But hes definitely with the capacity of sticking to a far more technical striking game for 3 rounds. And despite a couple of hard KO losses, he is commonly pretty rugged while carrying it out. Ill have a chance on John Makdessi by decision.
Staff picking Haqparast: Mookie
Staff picking Makdessi: Bissell, Stephie, Zane, Dayne, Anton
William Gomis vs. Jarno Errens
Bissell: It is a fight between two UFC newcomers, so both have a UFC wp of 0. This implies Ill be comparing their overall MMA wp. This implies Im picking William Gomis (83.33%) to please his hometown crowd with a make an impression on Jarno Errens (76.74%). William Gomis by TKO.
Zane Simon: I love both this business a lot so far as raw prospects go. Theyve got plenty of speed and both men have a significant willingness to sit back in the pocket and throw with power. Between them, however, Gomis appears to be the more creative combination striker and the more assertive scrambler. I expect both men to possess some heavy clashes in the pocket plus some wild exchanges on the floor, but I believe Gomis should come away the higher for it generally. William Gomis via decision.
Staff picking Gomis: Bissell, Stephie, Zane, Dayne, Anton
Staff picking Errens: Mookie
Charles Jourdain vs. Nathaniel Wood
Bissell: Once you consider the numbers for Charles Jourdain you see that, though he could be a dynamic fighter who has been section of some incredible fights, he hasnt had plenty of success in getting his hand raised. His UFC wp is merely 44.44%. Nathanial Wood holds a 71.43 wp. This is actually the largest wp differential on the complete card. Jourdain has only two more UFC fights than Wood and he also trails the Englishman with regards to total MMA wp. Jourdain has 68.42% for the reason that category in comparison to 78.26% for Wood (who also offers four more total fights than Jourdain). Nathaniel Wood by decision.
Mookie Alexander: Great matchup. Lots of this fight would depend on what much Wood will get Jourdain going backwards, because Jourdain is fantastic when hes leading the dance but he is able to struggle a little when hes pressured. I thought Jourdain got a raw deal against Shane Burgos and had an incident for a 10-8 final round with just how much he was beating Shane up. Woods only getting his feet wet at featherweight even though he looked great against Charles Rosa, this Charles is really a a lot more potent offensive fighter. This can really go in any event especially with Woods want of an easy pace and the prospects of both men hurting one another. I trust Jourdains durability over Woods therefore the pick is Charles Jourdain by decision.
Zane Simon: Im really split with this fight. On the main one hand, Wood has the sort of patient pressure, slick counters, and also some solid takedowns, to play hell with Jourdains discomfort overcoming his back foot. However, Im a little concerned about just how Wood will loaf around in the pocket after combinations and leave himself open for counters. If he does that all too often against Jourdain, the Canadian absolutely gets the violence potential to break him. Especially up at 145, where Wood really is a small fighter. Still, Ill take Woods consistency over Jourdains dynamic strikes. Nathaniel Wood by decision.
Staff picking Jourdain: Mookie, Stephie, Dayne, Anton
Staff picking Wood: Bissell, Zane
Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Abusupiyan Magomedov
Bissell: That is another interesting match-up for the wp theory. Im picking Stoltzfus regardless of an unimpressive 1-3 UFC record (25% wp) because his opponent can be an Octagon newcomer (therefore a 0% UFC wp). Once you dip to their total MMA numbers, you note that Abusupiyan Magomedov, who only has one fight less than Stoltzfus, includes a higher wp. So we will have if Stoltzfus lone Octagon success is a great predictor for how hell do against a person who did much better than he did prior to making it to the big show. Dustin Stoltzfus by decision.
Zane Simon: Both these men are slow, lumbering middleweights, but Magomedov has some decent technical skills to draw on when he gets the chance. Stoltzfus is commonly right down to scrap anywhere the fight goes, but if which means finding yourself on the mat with Magomedov, I believe hell have real problems. Abusupiyan Magomedov by submission, round 2.
Staff picking Stoltzfus: Bissell
Staff picking Magomedov: Mookie, Stephie, Zane, Dayne, Anton
Fares Ziam vs. Michal Figlak
Bissell: Fares Ziam is 2-2 (50% wp) trumps the 0% wp Figlak gets for having no UFC experience. Outside the UFC Figlak is undefeated in 8 fights (100% wp). Ziams total MMA wp is 75. Firas Ziam by TKO.
Zane Simon: I love the fundamentals of Figlaks game a whole lot. He boxes in volume, working the top and body in the pocket. But its not just a power style and there arent lots of secondary pieces compared to that game yet. It may be enough if he is able to really keep carefully the pressure on Ziam, but otherwise, Ziam includes a major range advantage and mixes up his tools much more. Fares Ziam via decision.
Staff picking Ziam: Bissell, Mookie, Stephie, Zane
Staff picking Figlak: Dayne, Anton
Nassourdine Imavov vs. Joaquin Buckley
Bissell: Nassourdine Imavov is another France-based fighter who Im picking predicated on this theory. He’s got a wp of 75% in comparison to Joaquin Buckleys 71.43%. Buckley holds a minuscule 0.38% wp advantage in overall MMA fights. Nassourdine Imavov by submission.
Mookie Alexander: This fight shouldve been higher through to the card. Buckley has that big explosive knockout power which could seriously test Imavovs chin, and I worry how Imavov could react to Buckleys pressure. Imavov gets the more well-rounded game theoretically but I believe about his wins over Ian Heinisch and Edmen Shahbazyan and I could easily argue that those wins were over a fading fighter and a broken prospect who includes a round of cardio. Buckleys not defensively sound, his vehicle’s gas tank isnt phenomenal, but I could quite definitely see him fighting through difficult spots to land an enormous shot which has Imavov venturing out. If we obtain the Buckley who whooped Duraev rather than the main one who scraped past Abdul Razak Alhassan, I really believe we obtain the upset. Hey, its my last predictions and I dont desire to just go all chalk. Joaquin Buckley by TKO, round 2.
Zane Simon: Both these men are great as spotting opportunities to get rid of fights and benefiting from them. Buckley is commonly more vigorous and persistent no real matter what the opportunities before him are, while Imavov feints and waits for the proper moment to strike. Given Buckleys tendency to fight on straight lines and in set rhythms I believe hell just offer way too many targets for Imavov to get. Nassourdine Imavov via club-n-sub round 1.
Staff picking Imavov: Bissell, Stephie, Zane, Dayne, Anton
Staff picking Buckley: Mookie
Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Gabriel Miranda
Bissell: It’ll be a memorable night for France if this theory is true. Benoit Saint-Denis is dealing with an Octagon debutante in Gabriel Miranda, so his 50% wp means he gets my pick here. Benoit Saint-Denis by KO.
Zane Simon: Never convinced that Miranda gets the physicality, wrestling, or striking to compete as of this level. Benoit Saint-Denis via TKO, round 3.
Staff picking Saint-Denis: Bissell, Mookie, Stephie, Zane, Dayne, Anton
Staff picking Miranda:
Khalid Taha vs. Cristian Quinonez
Bissell: Cristian Quinonez includes a perfect 100% wp because of his 1-0 UFC record, spawned in one fight on the Contender Series. Im picking him on the 25% wp Khalid Taha, who has already established four fights in the UFC. Cristian Quinonez by TKO.
Zane Simon: I love the basics of Khalid Tahas game much more. Hes a busy pocket puncher with real power in his hands. But, theres not just a good deal else going on with it. And at this time its worth wondering if there ever will undoubtedly be. Quinonez requires a large amount of chances throwing combinations in volume with out a large amount of great volume or footwork, but you can find way too many ways for Taha to start out falling behind. Really can see low kicks chewing him up here. Cristian Quinonez via decision.
Staff picking Taha: Dayne, Anton
Staff picking Quinonez: Bissell, Mookie, Stephie, Zane
Ailin Perez vs. Stephanie Egger
Bissell: Im fading another newcomer here. Stephanie Egger includes a 50% wp, though her overall MMA wp of 70% is far behind Ailin Perezs 87.5%. Stephanie Egger by decision.
Zane Simon: Perez is incredibly raw and will need physicality and takedowns to dominate fights. Egger is way bigger and contains an awful knack for finding armbars. Stephanie Egger via submission, round 1.
Staff picking Perez:
Staff picking Egger: Bissell, Mookie, Stephie, Zane, Dayne, Anton