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UFC Vegas Fight Night picks, predictions, parlay today: Jamahal Hill vs. Thiago Santos

UFC Fight Night picks, and predictions live from NEVADA, Nevada!

Tonights UFC card will undoubtedly be aired go on ESPN the network and ESPN+, scheduled to begin with at 6 PM est.

Fresh from a profitable UFC 277, we have been back at the UFC APEX center and their smaller cage. This card wont blow anyones hair back but there’s still some interesting fights to dissect.

This consists of THE BEST Fighter Finale (which nobody watches anymore) and some other seemingly non-UFC caliber fighters. There’s still several bets worth targeting there, though.

We hit a snag within the last 5 weeks. We got as high as 31.64 units profit but have dropped right down to 26.81 units profit. However, we profited the other day, plus some betting spots are worth targeting today.

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UFC Fight Night Vegas picks and predictions today

Jamahal Hill (-300) vs. Thiago Santos (+240)

At light heavyweight, Jamahal Hill battles former contender Thiago Santos. He could be an enormous favorite this weekend, one of the primary in his career despite Santos profiling as a intensify in competition.

Hill shows off phenomenal power in his punches, with four of his five UFC wins producing a KO by punches. Hill did get submitted against Paul Craig in another of the more brutal finishes we’ve observed in the UFC; in the event that you seek out it, viewer discretion is preferred.

Craig is really a jiu-jitsu savant, and Hills insufficient skill on the mat is really a bit overstated. Furthermore, Santos isn’t a threat to submit from his back, in order long as Hill stays calm and lands body shots that kills the vehicle’s gas tank of his opponent, he should roll here.

Jamahal Hill knocks out Johnny Walker
Jamahal Hill knocks out Johnny Walker
Zuffa LLC

Overall, Santos is really a gatekeeper in the division since multiple knee surgeries after his war with Jon Jones in 2019.

Hill is much too big of a popular on his moneyline and isn’t worth betting there. Instead, have a flyer on a KO from Hill. Santos has been very cautious in order to avoid damage early recently. Perhaps he survives for longer than oddsmakers think; the fight to get rid of in round one is +145 on FanDuel (40.82% implied), that is ridiculous.

Hill to win by KO/TKO in rounds several is +350 on FanDuel and is pretty much a flyer assuming Santos goes low volume survival mode midway through the initial round. Otherwise, feel absolve to spread this main event at light heavyweight.

UFC Fight Night Vegas picks

  • Hill wins by KO/TKO in rounds several +350 (FanDuel)

Betting on Sports?

Geoff Neal (+155) vs. Vicente Luque (-190)

An extremely fun co-main event featuring Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal occurs at 170lbs. Both fighters are billed as absolute scrappers who never shy from damage in striking exchanges.

Luque may be the rightful favorite here as he possesses the opportunity to finish on the floor and on your feet, unlike Neal. Neal is not finished since Kevin Hollands win by KO in 2017. He also offers not been submitted since 2013. Neal is not finished in virtually any of his nine UFC fights.

Vicente Luque submits Michael Chiesa
Vicente Luque submits Michael Chiesa
Zuffa LLC

The interesting data point here’s that neither fighter has been finished within their UFC career, despite combining for 27 UFC fights. Surely Luque could understand this fight to the mat to check out his favorite anaconda or darce choke.

However, he usually targets that choke when his opponent first shoots set for a takedown. Luque rarely actually resorts to wrestling to acquire his takedowns and obtain submissions. He’s got not successfully landed a takedown since 2017, per UFC Stats.

Search for this fight to become a three-round standup war where Luque does more damage and pulls out the victory. This may happen by decision or late stoppage. The bet below is really a solid solution to bet with this fight tonight.

UFC Fight Night Vegas picks

  • Luque wins in round 3 or by decision +175 (PointsBet)

UFC Fight Night Vegas parlay

This bet was positioned on BetMGM Sportsbook, that is offering a lot of its users a UFC parlay token boost (20% boost) on all parlays of three legs or even more. (Offers can vary greatly, check the promos page to see in the event that you qualify).

+403 to +501: Usman/Pauga goes the length +110 + Luque ML (-190) + Lipski/Cachoeira (-175)

  • Mohammad Usman and Zac Pauga may be the latest Ultimate Fighter season finale. Three of Usmans last four fights have attended decision, and four of Paugas last five have already been won by decision. Plus-money is an extremely reasonable play within a low-level fight. Think about this a best bet.

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