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USD/CAD more likely to drop to at least one 1.22 in the coming quarters NFB

The USD/CAD pair will probably decline toward 1.22 in the coming quarters with the oil/loonie correlation turning positive again, explain analysts at National Bank of Canada. They start to see the WTI oil price stabilizing at 90$ per barrel.

Key Quotes:

July was a roller coaster ride for the Canadian dollar. The loonie started the month at 1.29 before losing several feathers, with USD/CAD even reaching our Q3 target of just one 1.32 on July 14, faster than we’d envisioned inside our previous Forex piece and despite an urgent jumbo rate hike from the lender of Canada. After rallying 4 cents through August 1, the loonie has returned to at least one 1.29 contrary to the greenback on disappointing jobs data.

Unforced retirements, not layoffs, appear to be the root cause of recent job losses. We still see USD/CAD converging to at least one 1.22 in the coming quarters.

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