From the Carolinas to California, Montana to Florida, election denialism has spread in the united states. Candidates who support former President Donald Trumps false claims that the 2020 election was stolen can look on ballots in just about any state this fall. FiveThirtyEight drew on news reports, debate footage, campaign materials and social media marketing and reached out to each and every Republican nominee for the home, Senate, governor, secretary of state and attorney general to find out their position on the 2020 election.
There are a great number of election deniers on the ballot. Out of 529 total Republican nominees running for office, we found 195 who fully denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election. These candidates either clearly stated that the election was stolen from Trump or took legal action to overturn the outcomes, such as for example voting never to certify election results or joining lawsuits that sought to overturn the election.
Moreover, yet another 61 candidates raised questions round the outcomes of the 2020 election. These candidates havent gone as far as to state explicitly that the election was stolen or take legal action to overturn it. However, they havent said the election was legitimate either. Actually, they will have raised doubts about potential fraud.
There have been 115 candidates whose position on the 2020 election we’re able to not determine. They either had on the 2020 election or when asked directly.
However, not all Republicans running embrace Trumps claims. A complete of 71 have fully accepted the outcomes of the 2020 election while another 87 have accepted with reservations, meaning they think President Biden won, but nonetheless raised concerns concerning the integrity of the election.
Inside your home, a number of these election deniers look poised to win. Utilizing the latest data from FiveThirtyEights 2022 midterm election forecast, we are able to note that 118 election deniers and eight election doubters have at the very least a 95 percent potential for winning. Several additional candidates who’ve denied the election come in competitive races.
In the Senate, though, you will see far fewer election deniers. Only three election deniers are safe bets to become listed on the seven senators not up for reelection who objected to the certification of the 2020 election. However, a few more still have a genuine shot at winning.
In governors races, more election deniers stand to prevail. At the very least two election deniers and four election doubters are poised to be inaugurated as governors next year. And we cant eliminate election deniers being elected governor of swing states like Arizona and Pennsylvania.
We dont forecast elections for attorney general or secretary of state, but additionally, there are seven election deniers running for attorney general and six for secretary of state, the post that oversees election administration generally in most states.
Indeed, an election denier winning election and taking office is greater than a symbolic concern. An election-denying secretary of state could won’t certify an election that he / she believes was rigged. An election-denying governor could try to submit electoral votes that defy the will of individuals. And election-denying senators and representatives could vote to count those electoral votes. The 2022 election will regulate how several candidates get that chance.
Are election deniers running in a state?
See if the Republicans running in a state have denied or accepted the legitimacy of the 2020 election